Mediterranean Atlas
Curated weather products for a Mediterranean passage. GFS-Europe (Wetterzentrale) is the primary model; OPC / NHC cover the Atlantic approaches and tropical systems late-season.
Area of interest
The Med is locally-driven — mistral (Gulf of Lion), bora (Adriatic), meltemi (Aegean), sirocco (S. Med), vendavales (Alboran). Most of these kick in when a synoptic pressure gradient lines up with terrain channelling — watch both the synoptic chart and the local wind chart.
Pressure & 500 hPa (GFS Europe)
Analysis (t+0) — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU) 24 hr prog — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU) 48 hr prog — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU) 72 hr prog — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU) 96 hr prog — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU) 120 hr prog — MSLP + 500 mb Wetterzentrale (GFS-EU)
10 m wind (GFS Europe)
Precipitation & convection (GFS Europe)
Text forecasts
How to read the Med
- MSLP + 500 mb (GFS-EU) is your synoptic base. Track the Azores high, any Atlantic lows swinging in through Gibraltar, and cut-off lows over Iberia or the central Med.
- 10 m wind (GFS-EU) catches the thermal / channelling winds the MSLP chart misses. Run the 0/24/48/72 hr sequence side-by-side with the pressure field.
- CAPE / LI matters in summer: afternoon thunderstorms over land spill offshore in the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic. Anything > 1000 J/kg on the route deserves a second look.
- GOES-16 resolves the eastern Atlantic / W. Europe on its limb — useful for spotting cold fronts approaching Gibraltar.
- OPC Atlantic progs matter when a deep Atlantic low is tracking into Biscay; the tail of the front often sweeps into the western Med 24–36 hr later.
- High Seas text forecast (MIAHSFAT2) covers METAREA II including the approaches to Gibraltar — treat it as the authoritative warning source for the western Med gateway.